有色金属日度策略-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted significantly and then repaired, with differentiated trends. After the adjustment pressure is fully released, it can still be mainly long - biased on dips according to the strength of fundamentals [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the rare simultaneous release of non - farm payrolls and CPI in the US due to the short - term government shutdown. In China, the January social financing and inflation data will be released to verify the "good start" of the economy. Additionally, the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals market is generally volatile, with the holiday atmosphere becoming stronger and trading turning lighter. There is still volatility despite capital leaving the market as the holiday approaches. The market narrative has shifted from confidence in synchronous growth and abundant liquidity to uncertainties brought by volatility, a weak labor market, and AI - driven disruptions. The Middle East situation remains unstable, and there is still a possibility of fluctuations in overseas commodities during the holiday [12]. - China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected. US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated month - on - month, showing weak consumption at the end of the holiday season [12]. Investment Suggestions for Each Variety | Variety | Operating Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Multiple factors including weak US retail data, dovish Fed stance, potential large - scale downward revision of non - farm payrolls, strategic reserve plan by Trump, and domestic macro - logic. Supply is currently strong but may decline in February due to the holiday, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. | 98000 - 99000 | 108000 - 110000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | Dollar adjustment, overseas gas price decline, and uncertainties in Iran negotiations. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. | 23800 - 24000 | 25000 - 25500 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | For aluminum, there are new capacity releases and changes in demand in different sectors. For alumina, production capacity is increasing. For recycled aluminum alloy, there are both cost - support weakening and some positive factors. | Aluminum: 22000 - 22300; Alumina: 2300 - 2600; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 21000 - 21500 | Aluminum: 26000 - 27000; Alumina: 2900 - 3000; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 24000 - 26000 | Aluminum: Oscillating consolidation; Alumina: Oscillating weakly; Cast Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5/ - 0.5/ +0.5 | | Tin | Supply is affected by factors such as tight raw materials and approaching holidays. Demand shows a downward trend in some sectors. | 330000 - 350000 | 450000 - 460000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5 | | Lead | Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak. The market is affected by holiday factors and inventory changes. | 16400 - 16500 | 17000 - 17300 | Range - bound rebound | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by geopolitical factors, Indonesian policy adjustments, and changes in supply and demand. | 125000 - 128000 | 13800 - 140000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | | Stainless Steel | Affected by Indonesian policies, cost changes, and seasonal supply - demand patterns. | 12800 - 13000 | 13800 - 14000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | [14][15][16][17][18] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Percentage | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 102180 | 0.61% | | Zinc | 24585 | 0.53% | | Aluminum | 23660 | 0.62% | | Alumina | 2842 | 0.25% | | Tin | 394700 | 3.32% | | Lead | 16740 | 0.45% | | Nickel | 139360 | 4.51% | | Stainless Steel | 14040 | 2.18% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 22205 | 0.38% | [19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The analysis includes various non - ferrous metals futures contracts, showing information such as price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides spot prices and price change percentages of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain It presents multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [23][25][29][36][44][48][51][55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage It shows various charts for arbitrage analysis of different non - ferrous metals, including price ratios and basis spreads [58][59][61][65][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options It provides charts related to option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and the ratio of call to put open interest for different non - ferrous metals [75][76][77][79][82].