中辉有色观点-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is recommended for long - term strategic allocation. After adjustment, it can be bought on dips. The long - term value is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - Silver's short - term trading is difficult. It is advisable to wait for volatility to subside, although there is a long - term supply - demand gap [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and hold cash during the holiday. In the long run, it is still optimistic due to its strategic importance [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure. It is recommended to hold cash and be out of the market during the holiday, but consider buying on dips in the long term [1][11]. - Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices are under short - term upward pressure, and appropriate measures should be taken according to market conditions [1]. - Industrial silicon is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [1]. - Polysilicon is under pressure. Participation should be cautious, mainly influenced by policy expectations [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday and go long after stabilization [1][23]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - Core View: Gold is to be bought on dips after stabilization; silver is to wait for volatility to subside [1]. - Market Performance: Gold and silver ignored the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls and rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to 5107, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.60% to 84.08 [2]. - Supporting Factors: Three pillars support the gold price, including central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty. Future trends depend on the Fed's policy, Trump's policy, and AI technology progress [3]. - Strategy: Domestic gold should pay attention to the support around 1060, and silver around 19000 [4]. Copper - Core View: Take profits on long positions in the short term and hold cash during the holiday. Be optimistic in the long run [1][7]. - Market Performance: Overnight copper prices rose first and then fell [6]. - Industry Logic: The global copper mine is in short supply. The growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. However, inventory is at a high level, and demand is weak during the holiday [6]. - Strategy: Short - term, focus on the range of 100000 - 105000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 12800 - 13500 dollars/ton for LME copper [7]. Zinc - Core View: Be under pressure in the short term, hold cash during the holiday, and consider buying on dips in the long run [1][11]. - Market Performance: Zinc prices are under pressure [10]. - Industry Logic: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. As the holiday approaches, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [10]. - Strategy: Short - term, focus on the range of 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton for SHFE zinc and 3380 - 3480 dollars/ton for LME zinc [11]. Aluminum - Core View: The price rebound is under pressure, and it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [1][15]. - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebound is under pressure, and alumina is also under pressure [13]. - Industry Logic: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [14]. - Strategy: The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is 22500 - 25100 yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - Core View: The price rebound is under pressure, and it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [1][19]. - Market Performance: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel also rebounds [17]. - Industry Logic: Indonesia will reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and stainless steel inventory is also increasing [18]. - Strategy: The main operating range of nickel is 120000 - 150000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Core View: It is expected to rebound. Go long after stabilization [1][23]. - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 rose more than 9% [21]. - Industry Logic: The market atmosphere has improved. The inventory is decreasing in the off - season, but there are concerns about inventory accumulation in the peak season [22]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position in the range of 146000 - 156000 yuan/ton after stabilization [23].