油价偏强支撑成本，现货交投冷淡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE Market: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - PP Market: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - Inter - period: No operation [5] - Inter - variety: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]