氧化铝仍存在扰动的可能

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [8] 2. Core View of the Report - For electrolytic aluminium, downstream has entered the holiday period, with spot market trading cold and almost stagnant. The absolute price fluctuation of the futures is low, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March. Social inventory is expected to be above the seasonal level, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, aluminium prices are unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is advisable to avoid risks due to the approaching long holiday. In the long - term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain good, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro - environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, aluminium prices are likely to rise rather than fall [6]. - For alumina, there was a transaction of 2000 tons of alumina between Guangxi traders at a price of 2720 yuan/ton. There may still be supply disruptions at an alumina plant in Hebei. Although the impact of roasting is not high, the gap may need to be filled by additional purchases. Coupled with the current high profits of electrolytic aluminium, short - term spot prices may remain firm. However, the domestic supply pressure has not been alleviated, the actual supply has not been substantially affected, the pattern of static supply surplus remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. The price of domestic ore in the north has fallen, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has declined, and the price of imported ore is also falling, so the cost side cannot provide strong support [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 23260 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminium price is 23160 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminium price is 23410 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by 60 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminium Futures - On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 23515 yuan/ton, closed at 23660 yuan/ton, a change of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 23700 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23460 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 146496 lots, and the position was 174403 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Inventory - As of February 11, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 85.7 tons, a change of 2.1 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 167566 tons, a change of 1050 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 485750 tons, a change of - 1225 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On February 11, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On February 11, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2832 yuan/ton, closed at 2842 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.28%. The maximum price was 2857 yuan/ton, and the minimum price was 2757 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 438077 lots, and the position was 312145 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminium Alloy Price - On February 11, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 17200 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminium was 17600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 6.74 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 8.46 tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]. 3.9 Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminium: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminium alloy: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Long aluminium and short aluminium alloy [8]