卫星转产兑现，EG小幅反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,764 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,663 yuan/ton (up 38 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis was - 114 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 58 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 955 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 93.5 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 11 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 3 tons. From February 9th to 23rd, the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China was 18.1 tons, and that at the secondary ports was 5.8 tons [1] - On the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol is at a high level. There is still a large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. Satellite plans to switch production in February. Attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase. Overseas supply pressure will ease around the end of February after the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, but it is still high from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have declined rapidly, and the rigid demand support has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [1][6][8] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the gross profit of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol production, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol. Data sources include Flush, Longzhong, and CCF [10][12][17] 3.3 International Price Difference - It shows the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), with data from Longzhong [20] 3.4 Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - It presents the sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the loads of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. Data sources are mainly CCF [21][26][27] 3.5 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory at East China ports, including overall and specific port inventories, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at East China ports. Data sources are CCF and Longzhong [30][33][39]