油价成本支撑，节前现货交投清淡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term cautious and bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to control positions before the Spring Festival [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The market is still fluctuating around the Iran situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation. The PXN has significantly declined, and the floating price of PX remains weak. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the mid - term expectation is good [1] - TA: The spot processing fee of PTA has significantly declined, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the spot basis is weak. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is accumulating, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to improve [1] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 78.2% (a 6.0% month - on - month decrease). The weaving load has accelerated its decline, and the polyester load has also dropped to a low level. The inventory has started to accumulate. The average monthly load in February is estimated to be 79% [2] - PF: The spot production profit is - 16 yuan/ton (a 42 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease). The demand before the Spring Festival is weak, and the load is gradually declining [2] - PR: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle chips is 619 yuan/ton (a 42 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease). The pre - holiday inventory reduction is smooth, and the processing fee has rebounded [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - It shows figures on PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA's export profit are presented [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - The report provides figures on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories are included [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - It shows figures on the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures on the load of polyester staple fibers, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarns and polyester - cotton yarns are provided [66][73][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures on the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - on - month spreads are presented [82][84][90]