美非农数据大超预期，市场交易美联储宽松延后

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Postpone [9] Core Viewpoints - The market has basically priced in the slowdown of the interest rate cut rhythm in 2026. The unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data has a short-term negative impact on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near future. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8]. - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold. However, due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate between 20,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In January, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, exceeding the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. The average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Traders are now fully pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, compared with the previous expectation of June. Geopolitically, there is uncertainty as Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the North American trade agreement [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.68 yuan/gram and closed at 1,130.40 yuan/gram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1,133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1,118.20 yuan/gram, a 0.44% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,420.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,944.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 3.25% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,079 lots, and the open interest was 211,818 lots. The night session opened at 21,718 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,965 yuan/kilogram, a 2.27% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 11, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.16%, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.71%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On February 11, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 93,387 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 24,886 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 282,196 lots, a change of -3.31% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 126,073 lots, and the short positions changed by 129,594 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,084,057 lots, a change of -14.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.32 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,216 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 11, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 54.63 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 53.97, a change of -2.36% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 61.35, a change of -1.25% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,974 kilograms, a change of -7.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 232,512 kilograms, a change of -19.36% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7].