——2026年1月美国非农数据点评：私营部门企稳，非农超预期回升

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 70,000 and the revised previous value of 48,000[1] - The unemployment rate in January 2026 was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly above the expected 3.6%[1] Economic Indicators - The increase in non-farm employment was primarily driven by the private sector, with significant contributions from both goods production and service sectors[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, up from 62.4% in the previous month, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among middle-aged groups[4] - Temporary unemployment decreased by 83,000, reflecting increased demand for labor, while permanent unemployment saw a slight increase of 38,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's focus is expected to shift towards inflation, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026[5] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of no rate cuts in March 2026, with potential cuts in June and October at probabilities of 49.4% and 34.8%, respectively[5][24] Sector Performance - The construction sector added 33,000 jobs in January, a significant recovery from a previous loss of 4,000 jobs, driven by lower mortgage rates and housing reforms[3] - The professional and business services sector saw an increase in temporary jobs from 6,000 to 9,000, indicating strong demand in the part-time job market[3]