光大期货能化商品日报（2026年2月12日）-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, the market will be affected by factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical uncertainties. For other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, their prices will be influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations. Traders are advised to participate with light positions before the Spring Festival to control risks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices rose. The WTI March contract closed up $0.67 to $64.63 per barrel, a 1.05% increase. The Brent April contract closed up $0.6 to $69.4 per barrel, a 0.87% increase. SC2604 closed at 479.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.9 yuan, a 0.82% increase. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000. EIA data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories increased while distillate inventories decreased. OPEC reported that global demand for OPEC+ oil in Q2 would decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, and there would be a slight surplus. The oil market is expected to be volatile, and traders are advised to use light positions [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 2,860 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 2.32% to 3,357 yuan per ton. As of February 11, the operating rate of Chinese local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.31%, up 0.26 percentage points from last week. The Singapore low - sulfur market is under pressure, but the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening. The market is expected to be volatile, and light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the SHFE rose 0.51% to 3,358 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory of domestic refineries' asphalt was 24.67%, up 0.72% month - on - month; the social inventory rate was 25.87%, up 0.24% month - on - month; the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 29.93%, down 1.76% month - on - month. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. Light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3][5]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5,260 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; EG2605 closed at 3,764 yuan per ton, up 0.83%. PX, PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations and potential unplanned shutdowns of polyester raw materials during the Spring Festival [5]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 240 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The cost - end raw material prices are supported by inventory building, but the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to risks during the Spring Festival [7]. - Methanol: The supply is at a high - level shock, and Iranian supply remains low. The demand has rigid support, but the MTO unit load is still low. Iranian shipments are expected to decline in February, which may support prices. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7][9]. - Polyolefins: The upstream production is high as there are no large - scale maintenance plans for upstream units, and downstream factories are gradually shutting down. Polyolefins are expected to start accumulating inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The PVC market in different regions shows different trends. The demand is weakening as domestic real - estate construction slows down before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the price is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change in basis rate compared to the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - On February 11, US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran continue. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 70,000, and the December data was revised downward to an increase of 48,000. The severe cold and snowstorms in the US did not affect the enterprise survey for calculating employment [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The document presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [17][19][21][23] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The document shows charts of the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [34][37][41] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The document provides charts of the spreads between different contracts for various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The document presents charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][67][69] - 4.5 Production Profits: The document shows charts of production profits and processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of Everbright Futures Research Institute Zhong Meiyan, the director of energy and chemical research Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, achievements, and qualification numbers [76][77][78][79] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [81]