工业硅&多晶硅日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 11, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,370 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 4,377 lots to 308,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,458 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 480 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,180 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The open interest decreased by 304 lots to 38,313 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan reached 53,650 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 53,650 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 4,470 yuan/ton. Yunnan manufacturers entered the delivery period for the last batch of orders before the holiday, and production will gradually be reduced across the board this week. Xinjiang continued to reduce production and output. Currently, term traders are still actively selling goods, and downstream备货 is coming to an end. There is no upward momentum before the holiday. New orders in the crystalline silicon market have stagnated before the holiday. Silicon wafers have entered a one-order-one-negotiation mode. Except for component traders selling goods at reduced prices due to financial pressure, other sectors have temporarily stabilized in the stalemate of transactions. Before the holiday, based on the logic of capital repatriation, the crystalline silicon futures market will continue to be weak, and market contradictions will shift to the game of post-holiday expected confidence [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures Settlement Price: The main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,295 yuan/ton. - Spot Price: The prices of various grades and regions remained unchanged. The price difference between 421 and non-oxygenated 553/oxygenated 553 remained stable at 450/350 yuan/ton. - Delivery Price: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 5 yuan to 480 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,200 tons to 19,317 tons, and the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory increased by 13,970 tons to 83,685 tons. The weekly inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and industrial silicon factories increased by 1,000 tons, 1,000 tons, and 14,500 tons respectively. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,500 tons to 439,350 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Futures Settlement Price: The main contract increased by 230 yuan/ton to 49,180 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,490 yuan/ton. - Spot Price: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. - Delivery Price: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 53,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 230 yuan to 4,470 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 7,940 tons, and the weekly GFE inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 25.83 million tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons [4]. 3.1.3 Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton, 14,500 yuan/ton, and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - The charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, polysilicon futures inventory, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory change, polysilicon weekly inventory, and DMC weekly inventory [20][23]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and aluminum alloy cost and profit [26][28][31]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon. Zhu Xi mainly studies lithium and nickel [34][35].