碳酸锂日报（2026年2月12日）-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 9.18% to 150,260 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 138,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 134,500 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 750 yuan/ton to 134,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 10 tons to 35,527 tons [3]. - In January 2026, the Chinese automobile industry maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The new energy vehicle market also ran steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve, with double - digit growth in both production and sales year - on - year. The export of new energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, reaching 302,000 units, doubling year - on - year. The standard GB/T "Part 1: Terms and Classification of Solid - State Batteries for Electric Vehicles" is expected to be officially released in July 2026 [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. The planned production of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the planned production of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [3]. - The news has weakened the bearish sentiment, and the expectation of post - holiday demand has led to a rapid strengthening of prices. However, the downstream's Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and there has been some strategic stocking. If the price remains strong in the short term, the futures and spot prices may diverge again. The shipment data from Chile in January increased significantly month - on - month, but it was due to the Spring Festival factor and the volume is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on the domestic market may appear after the holiday. In March, domestic production will gradually resume, and the pressure will depend on whether the demand can exceed expectations. A continuous decline in post - holiday inventory levels may be a significant bullish support, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot products increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - The automobile industry showed different trends in January 2026, with the new energy vehicle market stable and the commercial vehicle market improving, and the export of new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The relevant battery standard is expected to be released in July 2026 [3]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate decreased in February, and the inventory structure changed [3]. - The price may fluctuate widely in the short term due to various factors such as news, demand, and supply [3]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry chain increased, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some cathode materials. Some products' prices remained unchanged, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and some ternary precursors [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 are presented [12][14][18]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2026 are shown [20][22]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are provided [27][29][31]. - Lithium Battery Prices: The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 are shown [33][36]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 2025 to February 2026 are presented [38][41]. - Production Costs: The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to February 2026 are shown [42].