黑色商品日报（2026年2月12日）-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to show weak consolidation in the short - term. The current high inventory of steel faces significant digestion pressure after the festival, and the decline in the auto market in January has a negative impact on steel demand. However, the low valuation of rebar limits the downward space of prices [1]. - The iron ore price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The supply is affected by the hurricane in Australia, leading to a significant decline in shipments, while the demand side shows that the iron - making water output is 228.58 tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills is increasing [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For coking coal, the supply side has some mines on holiday and reduced production, and the demand side has weakened replenishment demand. For coke, the supply side has increased production due to improved profits, and the demand side has general procurement demand from steel mills [1]. - The manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For manganese - silicon, the cost side has a bullish sentiment for post - holiday manganese ore, the supply side has a slight decrease in weekly output, and the demand side has limited support. For ferrosilicon, the supply side has a small increase in the start - up rate, and the inventory is at a medium - level in recent years [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.19 million hands in positions. The spot market is in a situation of "price but no market". The auto market in January 2026 has a negative impact on steel demand. The overall steel inventory is high, and the short - term rebar futures are expected to show weak consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with 130,000 lots traded and a decrease of 7,000 hands in positions. The supply is affected by the hurricane in Australia, and the demand side has an iron - making water output of 228.58 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 156,420 tons. The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a decrease of 14,309 hands in positions. The supply side has some mines on holiday and reduced production, and the demand side has weakened replenishment demand. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.12%), with an increase of 820 hands in positions. The supply side has increased production due to improved profits, and the demand side has general procurement demand from steel mills. The short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Manganese - Silicon: The manganese - silicon futures price fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The main contract closed at 5824 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day, with a decrease of 6906 hands in positions to 367,000 hands. The cost side has a bullish sentiment for post - holiday manganese ore, the supply side has a slight decrease in weekly output, and the demand side has limited support. The short - term manganese - silicon futures are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday. The main contract closed at 5576 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day, with a decrease of 4474 hands in positions to 162,000 hands. The supply side has a small increase in the start - up rate, and the inventory is at a medium - level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon futures are expected to fluctuate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months) and basis for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - Profit and Spread: It also shows the latest values and changes of profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][8][9][10][11][13]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [15][16][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 05 - 10, 10 - 01) for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [24][26][31][32][34][35][37]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][41][42]. - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [44][45][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [50].