美国私募信贷市场，还安全么？

Group 1: Private Credit Market Overview - The private credit market in the U.S. has grown to nearly $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 10% of total commercial bank credit as of 2023[3] - Private credit primarily serves small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with non-bank investors like pension funds and insurance companies participating through private credit funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs)[3] - BDCs are required to disclose data regularly, providing a window into the private credit market, with BDCs managing assets that have tripled since 2020[19] Group 2: Credit Quality and Returns - Cash flows for many mid-sized companies are recovering post-rate cuts, but BDC shareholder returns are declining due to lower profitability and mandatory profit distribution requirements[4] - The average dividend coverage ratio for publicly traded BDCs fell from 1.34 in mid-2023 to 1.08 by September 2025, indicating weakened ability to cover dividends[4] - Non-accrual investments in BDCs have increased from 0.8% in 2022 to over 1.2% by Q3 2025, suggesting rising credit risk[4] Group 3: Rising Default Risks - Credit rating agencies report an upward trend in default rates within the private credit market, with "invisible defaults" also on the rise, indicating hidden risks[5] - The software and healthcare sectors are particularly vulnerable, with software companies facing high leverage and potential disruption from AI advancements[5] - Nearly 14% of commercial real estate loans are in negative equity, raising concerns about the stability of this sector[5]