主力合约短期走势震荡，关注节后马士基3月第二周开价态度

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the main contract is volatile. Attention should be paid to Maersk's pricing attitude in the second week of March after the holiday. The 04 contract is expected to fluctuate before the holiday, and focus on the cargo - collection situation after the holiday. The success of the price increase in March is still unclear. If the price increase is successful at the beginning of March, the bottom valuation of the EC2604 contract may be raised to some extent [1][4]. - For the more distant contracts, the game on the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to be high. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of February 11, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 57,483.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 22,275.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1756.00, 1177.90, 1501.00, 1581.00, 1105.00, and 1395.00 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1155.66 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 2 ships with a total of 28,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 + TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For 17,000 + TEU ships, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 + TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 (January - June) [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity was 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600, 259,800, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity was 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300, 365,200, 304,700, 320,400, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500, 294,400, 263,500, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management pointed out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to resume to the full resumption. The resumption of the Red Sea requires multiple conditions to be met, including the assessment and approval of industry associations, the reduction of insurance premiums by insurance companies, the recognition of safety by customers, and the consensus within the alliance. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years [4].