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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged, and the core driver overseas is Trump's policies. His nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit - card rates, and boost the real - estate market. Although there was a significant short - term decline in assets such as silver, gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks, the long - term inflation narrative persists [1][2]. - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, including the central bank's interest - rate cuts and the finance ministry's policy releases. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different investment outlooks, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh advocates a "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy. After the news, silver fell over 30%, and gold dropped 11%, hitting the biggest single - day decline since March 1980. Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks were all under pressure in the short term. Trump hopes to stimulate the economy to grow at a 15% rate, indicating a pursuit of significant rate cuts and higher inflation tolerance [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption - boosting and anti - "involution" measures. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the finance ministry released five important policy documents on January 20. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond transactions. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, much higher than the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed that India would stop importing Russian oil. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister will discuss food tax cuts [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, Indonesia cut the annual production quota of the world's largest nickel mine to 1.2 billion tons, a 71% drop from 2025, causing the LME nickel price to rise over 2.6%. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC + will keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need attention on weather and short - term pig diseases, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [3]. News - US employment growth in January exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The actual new employment from March 2025 was about 900,000 less than initially reported. November and December non - farm employment numbers were revised down [4]. - After the base - period rotation of China's CPI and PPI, the average impact on the year - on - year index was about 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2][4]. - Indonesia will significantly reduce the production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel to 1.2 billion tons this year, down from 4.2 billion tons in 2025. Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2][4].