有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日）-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose first and then fell, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in January reduced the urgency of the Fed's interest rate cut. Downstream demand slowed as companies began to take holidays, and social inventories increased. Copper prices are still influenced by financial attributes and market sentiment, showing a generally oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips, but hold light positions during the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances in overseas markets [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina oscillated and adjusted, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Although alumina prices rose due to overseas price increases and domestic raw material winter storage, the upward trend is difficult to sustain due to inventory backlog and expiring warehouse receipt cancellation pressure. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand remains weak, and social inventories are accumulating. The center of gravity and volatility of aluminum prices are decreasing, but risks related to the US - Iran situation should be watched [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly. The premium of nickel ore is strengthening, and the price of ferronickel is oscillating at a high level. There are concerns about tight resource supply in the future. Although the demand is weakening in the short - term, the cost support is strong. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line. Also, hold light positions during the Spring Festival due to potential overseas disturbances [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls in January showed strong data, which reduced the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. Downstream demand slowed, and social inventories increased. Copper prices are still affected by financial factors and market sentiment, with an overall oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices rose due to overseas price increases and domestic winter storage, but the upward trend is unsustainable due to inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and social inventories are increasing. Aluminum prices are trending down, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rose overnight. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has been significantly reduced. There are concerns about tight resource supply. Although short - term demand is weakening, cost support is strong. It is advisable to look for opportunities to test long positions near the cost line and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On February 11, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 65 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,958 tons. The active contract import profit increased by 108 yuan/ton [5]. - Aluminum: On February 11, 2026, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased by 30 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1,050 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina inventory decreased by 19,000 tons [6]. - Nickel: On February 11, 2026, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,400 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 12 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,784 tons [6]. - Zinc: On February 11, 2026, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.2%. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory of zinc increased by 0.98 tons [8]. - Tin: On February 11, 2026, the main settlement price of tin increased by 1.5%. LME tin inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,718 tons [8]. - Lead: On February 11, 2026, the average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE lead inventory increased by 1007 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can help analyze the premium trends of these metals [10][11][12][13][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: The report presents charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026, which can be used to analyze the spread trends [16][17][19][20][21][22]. - LME Inventory: The report shows charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze inventory trends [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - SHFE Inventory: The report provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze inventory trends [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - Social Inventory: The report offers charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze social inventory trends [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Smelting Profit: The report presents charts of copper concentrate index, copper rough processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze smelting profit trends [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [49]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant industry awards and provides services such as policy interpretation and risk management for customers [49]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She has won relevant industry awards and provides services for new energy industry leading enterprises [50].