理财规模跟踪月报（2026年1月）：1月理财规模季节性下降-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the wealth management scale decreased seasonally, with an expected rebound of about 1 trillion in February and an increase of about 3 trillion for the whole year [2][7][11]. - In January 2026, the average monthly annualized yield of fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies rebounded, and the average annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was low and stable [2][13][15]. - In the past two years, the cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly, and it is expected to continue to decline in the future, which may support the bond yield to decline [16][19]. - The long - term bond yield may decline by 5 - 10BP again in the first quarter of 2026, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [24][25]. - The steady growth of the wealth management scale will strongly support credit bonds within 3 years, and attention can be paid to the sinking opportunities of 3 - 5Y credit bonds [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 January Wealth Management Scale Seasonal Decline - As of the end of January 2026, the wealth management scale was 32.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year. The decline in January 2026 was similar to that in 2021 when the Spring Festival was also late. The reasons included the bank's focus on deposit and loan business at the beginning of the year and the regulation of the "ranking" chaos of wealth management yields [5][7]. - It is expected that the wealth management scale will rebound by about 1 trillion in February, and the low deposit interest rate and year - end bonuses will drive the rebound. The wealth management scale is expected to increase by about 3 trillion in 2026 [7][11]. 2. How about the Yield of Fixed - Income Wealth Management Products in January 2026? - Since the beginning of 2022, the average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been declining. In January 2026, the upper limit of the average performance comparison benchmark was 2.68%, and the lower limit was 2.15%. It is expected that the lower limit will slowly drop to about 2.0% [12]. - In January 2026, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was 1.24%, and that of money funds was 1.10%. The yield of money - related products is expected to be low and stable in the future [13]. - In January 2026, due to the improvement of the bond market and the strength of the stock market, the average annualized yield of fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies rebounded to 3.57%, and that of pure fixed - income wealth management products rebounded to 2.83% [15]. 3. Investment Suggestion: The Long - Term Bond Yield May Decline by 5 - 10BP Again - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. It is expected to drop below 1.60% in 25Q4 and below 1.4% in 26Q4. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks is expected to decline year by year, which may support the bond yield to decline [16][19]. - After the significant adjustment of long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds in December 2025, the long - term bonds rebounded since mid - January 2026, mainly driven by allocation funds. The risk of long - term bonds is relatively low, and the long - term bond yield may decline by 5 - 10BP in the first quarter of 2026 [22][23][24]. - The steady growth of the wealth management scale will strongly support credit bonds within 3 years. It is expected that wealth management will significantly increase the allocation of credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 3 years and allocate 5Y credit bonds through amortized cost open - end bond funds. Attention can be paid to the sinking opportunities of 3 - 5Y credit bonds [26].