2026年1月美国非农数据点评：非农超预期：6月前或暂停降息

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, with a labor force participation rate increase to 62.5%[14] - Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[17] Annual Revision - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 862,000 jobs, close to the previous estimate of 911,000[22] - The total annual job additions for 2025 were revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly addition of approximately 15,000 jobs[23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected employment data has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a less than 6% probability of a rate cut in March[28] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts before June, with potential cuts expected in June and September[28] Risks - Inflation exceeding expectations could limit the space for rate cuts, and political pressures may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[29]