国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to oscillate and rebound, while silver is likely to decline from its high level. Copper prices are supported by raw material disturbances, zinc will trade within a range, lead lacks driving forces and its price will oscillate, tin will experience slight oscillations, aluminum will remain at a high level and oscillate, alumina's oversupply situation remains unchanged, cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum, platinum's trading is light and it will move sideways, palladium will continue to oscillate, nickel is affected by news from Indonesia and attention should be paid to speculative risks, and stainless steel's cost support center will move up due to frequent maintenance and production cuts in February [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D yesterday were 1,130.40 and 1,124.47 respectively, with daily increases of 0.82% and 0.63%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D were 20,944 and 19,899 respectively, with daily increases of 3.16% and 3.24%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 164 compared to the previous day, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 107,478 [5]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0, and that of Shanghai Silver increased by 18,734. The spread between Gold T+D and AU2602 remained unchanged at -5.93, and the spread between Silver T+D and AG2602 decreased by 354 to 1,016 [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the largest increase since April last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Wall Street expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to July [5][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,180, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 14,245 compared to the previous day [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 12,958, and the LME copper inventory increased by 3,000. The LME copper cash - 3M spread increased by 1.27 to -76.1 [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The US January non - farm report was strong, delaying the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut from June to July. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter, and Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year [10][12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,640, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 72, and the LME zinc trading volume increased by 651 [13]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 8,100, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500. The LME CASH - 3M spread increased by 4.18 to -19.55 [13]. - News: The US January non - farm employment data was strong, and the market postponed the expectation of the first interest rate cut from June to July [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,755, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 15,600 [16]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 1,007, and the LME lead inventory increased by 200. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 1.95 to -50.95 [16]. - News: The US January non - farm report was strong, delaying the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut from June to July [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 394,700, with a daily increase of 3.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 13,940 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 131, and the LME tin inventory increased by 120. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract increased by 480 to 6,100 [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, and Trump privately considered withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,660, the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,842, and the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,205. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 42,086, the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased by 74,829, and the aluminum alloy main contract decreased by 412 [23]. - Inventory and Spread: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 875,000 tons, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,200 tons. The spread between the near - month and the consecutive - one contract of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 5 to -75 [23]. - Comprehensive News: Li Qiang proposed to promote AI innovation, and Wall Street postponed the expectation of the first interest rate cut to July [25]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Platinum Futures 2606 was 551.15, with a daily increase of 2.54%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum decreased by 153, and the NYMEX Platinum trading volume increased by 6,910 [28]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum remained unchanged, and the inventory of NYMEX Palladium decreased by 4,010. The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 decreased by 17.74 to -5.77 [28]. - Macro and Industry News: The US non - farm report was strong, and the market postponed the expectation of the first interest rate cut. Trump said reaching an agreement with Iran was the "preferred" option [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 139,360, and the stainless steel main contract was 14,040. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 237,189, and the stainless steel main contract increased by 122,482 [32]. - Industry Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 137,750, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,043, and the price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 14,650 [32]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian government suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the energy and mineral resources department planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [32][33].