黑色金属数据日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, with the holiday approaching, the spot market is closed, the futures price is oscillating weakly, and the market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is suggested to wait and see on the single - side, and the hot - rolled coil positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply and demand are both weak, while policies and costs are favorable for prices. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3][7]. - For coking coal and coke, the atmosphere in the pre - holiday commodity market has warmed up. It is advised to cash in the spot before the holiday and consider closing out the speculative short positions [5][7]. - For iron ore, the replenishment is basically over, and the price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. In the medium and long term, there is obvious upward pressure, and medium - and long - term investors are suggested to enter short positions at the pressure level [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 11, for far - month contracts (RB2610, HC2610, etc.), the closing prices,涨跌值, and涨跌幅 varied. For example, RB2610 closed at 3103.00 yuan/ton with a涨跌值 of 0.00 and a涨跌幅 of 0.00%. For near - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.), similar data were presented, such as RB2605 closing at 3054.00 yuan/ton with a涨跌值 of - 2.00 and a涨跌幅 of - 0.07%. The跨月价差,价差/比价/利润 also had corresponding values and changes on that day [1]. Spot Market - On February 11, the spot prices of various products (Shanghai thread steel, Tianjin thread steel, etc.) were reported, along with their changes. For instance, the Shanghai thread steel price was 3210.00 yuan/ton with a涨跌值 of 0.00. The price and change of the hot - rolled coil, billet, and other products were also provided [1]. Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday. The futures price is oscillating weakly, reflecting a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The iron - water production is stable before the holiday and has the potential to resume production later. The downstream replenishment is nearly over. The start of post - holiday construction demand should be noted. The single - side strategy suggests waiting and seeing, and the hot - rolled coil positive spread can be rolled for operation. For large spot exposure, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The terminal demand has seasonally weakened as downstream terminals shut down. The overall demand is flat, with weak and stable direct demand. The alloy plant profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared to the same period last year, with production remaining stable. There is still pressure of over - supply in the medium term. The inventory is oscillating, and there is pressure from warrant sales. Policy benefits and cost support are favorable for prices. The manganese ore price from overseas mines has risen, and the cost of double - silicon has increased. Stimulus policies are beneficial at the turn of the year, and industrial policies such as "dual - carbon", energy - consumption dual - control, and anti - involution policies affect supply and cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the market trading atmosphere has become cold as the holiday approaches. Most coking coal auctions in the producing areas have declined. The downstream procurement has slowed down, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu port is still relatively high. On the futures side, non - ferrous and precious metals show signs of strengthening again, and the market sentiment has warmed. Since the black market has fallen to the lower edge of the oscillation range and there are only a few trading days before the holiday, it is recommended to build a position. If there were short positions before, it is advised to close them. Fundamentally, it is the off - season, the industrial data is weak, the steel supply is relatively stable, the demand has weakened seasonally, and the inventory has accumulated, but there is no excessive spot selling pressure [5]. Iron Ore - The steel - mill replenishment is basically over before the holiday. Due to the low iron - water level and the steel - mill's low - inventory strategy, the replenishment was not stronger than expected, and the iron - ore price did not rebound strongly during the replenishment period. The price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether the Australian weather affects the supply rhythm, and the impact of the Australian hurricane on the price is more about providing a better short - selling point after a rebound. In the medium and long term, there is obvious upward pressure on iron ore, and medium - and long - term investors are suggested to enter short positions at the pressure level [6].