航运衍生品数据日报-20260212

Report Summary - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [2] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Author: Lu Dingyi [3] - Date: February 12, 2026 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current European line spot freight rates are in a downward trend due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo vacuum period, with each alliance's price quotes showing differentiated adjustments. The supply - demand imbalance suppresses freight rates, but 3 leading shipping companies have proposed to increase rates to $3000/FEU in March [5]. - Maersk's March first - week European route freight rate remains at the February level, and the previously proposed March price increase expectation has not been fulfilled. Other shipping companies and alliances are likely to follow Maersk's pricing. If the post - Spring Festival cargo volume recovery is weak, spot freight rates may be further adjusted downwards [7]. - In the short - term, the trading activity of newly listed contracts is low. The market will maintain a range - bound pattern. Key factors to watch include other shipping companies' March freight rate follow - up, post - festival cargo volume recovery, and changes in passive blank sailings caused by previous port congestion [7]. - The short - term cost - effectiveness of shorting has decreased. Attention should be paid to going long on the 06 contract at low levels and shorting the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1267 | 1317 | -3.81% | | CCFI | 1122 | 1176 | -4.55% | | SCFI - US West | 1801 | 1867 | -3.54% | | SCFIS - US West | 1155 | 1101 | 4.90% | | SCFI - US East | 2530 | 2605 | -2.88% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1403 | 1418 | -1.06% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1657 | 1792 | -7.53% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 2291 | 2424 | -5.49% | [4] 3.2 Spot Price and Market Situation - The current European line spot freight rates are falling due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo vacuum period, with each alliance's price quotes showing differentiated adjustments. Shipping alliances are reducing prices to grab cargo, and the supply - demand imbalance suppresses freight rates [5]. - Three leading shipping companies have proposed to increase rates to $3000/FEU in March [5]. 3.3 Market Logic - Maersk's March first - week European route freight rate remains at the February level, and other shipping companies and alliances are likely to follow. If the post - Spring Festival cargo volume recovery is weak, spot freight rates may be further adjusted downwards, similar to the situation in 2025 [7]. - In the short - term, the trading activity of newly listed contracts is low. Key factors to watch include other shipping companies' March freight rate follow - up, post - festival cargo volume recovery, and changes in passive blank sailings caused by previous port congestion [7]. 3.4 Strategy - The short - term cost - effectiveness of shorting has decreased. Attention should be paid to going long on the 06 contract at low levels and shorting the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [8].