蛋白数据日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA February supply and demand report is slightly bearish. The report did not adjust US soybean data, raised Brazil's soybean output by 20 million tons to 180 million tons (higher than the market - expected 179.2 million tons), and increased the global soybean ending inventory to 125.51 million tons. The report did not adjust Argentina's soybean output. [12] - In the short - term, the expected increase in US soybean exports boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazil's premium partially offsets the upward impact on the US market. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. [12] - Recently, the domestic soybean crushing profit has deteriorated significantly. It is recommended to focus on the low - level long - position opportunity of IC2609. [12] - Domestic oil mills and downstream feed enterprises' soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There is an expectation of imported soybean auctions after the holiday. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be loose from February to March, and the soybean meal basis is expected to be under pressure. [12] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Spot and Futures Price - Related Data - On February 11, the Dalian soybean meal futures price was 427, down 19; Tianjin was 387, down 39; and Rizhao was 307, down 9. [5] - The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 307, down 19; in Dongguan was 287, down 39; in Zhanjiang was 307, down 39; and in Fangcheng was 327, down 39. [5] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 130, down 38. [5] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 485, down 5. [5][6] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025 was 95.00 cents per bushel, up 10. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.8790, and the futures crushing profit was 125 yuan per ton. [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventories, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventories, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventories, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are presented in the form of time - series charts from 2019 - 2026. [5][6] 3.3 Holiday Risk Concerns - In late February, the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Outlook Forum is expected to announce the planting area estimates of US soybeans and corn for the 2026/27 season. Pay attention to the change in the soybean - corn ratio and its guidance for the US soybean planting area. [12] - On the night of February 4, Trump said on social media that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans by 8 million tons to 20 million tons this market season. Pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade policies and China's US soybean purchase news. [12] - As of February 7, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 17.4%, with a faster harvest progress. Pay attention to the harvest weather and the impact of Brazil's premium on selling pressure. [12] - Argentina's soybean sowing is basically over. Due to dry weather recently, the crop quality has declined, but the short - term rainfall is expected to recover. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas during the holiday. [12] - Pay attention to domestic imported soybean auction news during and after the holiday. [12] - Pay attention to the trends of the RMB exchange rate and the Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]