镍&不锈钢 2026/2/10：蓄势以待

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel price has recently shown a volatile consolidation pattern, with the fundamentals continuing the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although the market expects a significant contraction in Indonesian nickel supply due to quota reduction, the previous increase in nickel price has led to a short - term increase in supply and continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. In the future, the nickel fundamentals still have a repair expectation. The raw material ore price has risen significantly, and the rainy - season disturbances and the delay of the MOMS system review still restrict the supply. The nickel ore premium may increase further, and the cost support of the nickel industry chain is strong, which is expected to provide bottom - line resilience for the price [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Futures: Last week, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 138,000 yuan/ton, closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,100 yuan/ton and a low of 129,300 yuan/ton, down 5.83% for the week. The stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,100 yuan/ton, closed at 13,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 14,115 yuan/ton and a low of 13,420 yuan/ton, down 3.32% for the week [9][79]. - Spot: As of February 9, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 139,450 yuan/ton, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease; the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 144,150 yuan/ton, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; the imported nickel price decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 134,600 yuan/ton, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease. The 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton [16][79]. - Import and Export: As of February 6, the LME nickel price decreased by 320 US dollars/ton to 17,235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% week - on - week decrease. The electrolytic nickel import profit and loss decreased by 69.9 yuan/ton to - 476.27 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic nickel export profit and loss increased by 265.28 US dollars/ton to - 1,178.88 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - Price: As of February 9, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were 30, 64.5, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +5, +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were 22 and 60.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of +0.5 and +5.9 [34]. - Supply: The Philippine nickel ore output is usually at a very low level at the beginning of the year. The Surigao and Homonhon mining areas are in the rainy - season peak, while Palawan and Zambales are in the dry season and are the main sources of export supply. Some Indonesian mining areas are still affected by rainfall, and the production and circulation efficiency is low. The supply - side increment is limited due to the RKAB quota reduction expectation and the review of the forestry working group [34][4]. - Inventory: As of February 6, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 230,000 tons to 6.83 million wet tons, a 3.26% week - on - week decrease [37]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - Production: As of January 2026, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.3 to 42,000 nickel tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ice - nickel metal production in January 2026 was 41,500 tons, a 4.06% month - on - month increase and a 31.05% year - on - year increase [42]. - Price: As of February 9, the MHP FOB price decreased by 1,234 US dollars/ton to 14,870 US dollars/ton, a 7.66% week - on - week decrease; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 1,270 US dollars/ton to 15,362 US dollars/ton, a 7.64% week - on - week decrease [42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Production: As of January 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 6,300 tons to 37,700 tons, a 20.06% month - on - month increase and a 25.54% year - on - year increase [46]. - Inventory: As of February 6, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,398 tons to 51,300 tons, a 9.38% week - on - week increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,300 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 2,582 tons to 73,200 tons, a 3.65% week - on - week increase [51]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Production: As of January 2026, China's nickel sulfate monthly production decreased by 1,414 tons to 33,600 nickel tons, a 4.04% month - on - month decrease [63]. - Demand: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream precursor and battery factory stocking was basically completed, with only rigid - demand restocking. The high - nickel ternary production scheduling slowed down seasonally, and the trading was light [63]. 3.6 Ferronickel - Production: As of January 2026, the national ferronickel production (metal content) increased by 2,000 tons to 23,200 tons, a 9.47% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 nickel tons, a 6.51% month - on - month decrease [73]. - Cost: Last week, the ferronickel cost pressure intensified, and the profit space significantly narrowed. The high cost was difficult to be passed on to the downstream due to weak demand [75]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - Production: As of January 2026, China's stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a 5.08% month - on - month increase and a 24.83% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the production scheduling in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a 22.62% month - on - month decrease and a 12.49% year - on - year decrease [82]. - Inventory: As of February 6, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 12,300 tons to 964,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 9,705 tons to 53,500 tons, a 22.18% week - on - week increase [85]. - Cost: As of February 9, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 141 yuan/ton to 13,696 yuan/ton, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease [88].