2026年1月美国非农就业数据点评：“真的”失业率，“假的”新增非农

Employment Data - The January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, representing a 2.46x standard deviation above expectations[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.28%, lower than the expected 4.4% and down from the previous value of 4.38%[1] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls for 2025 were revised down to 29,000 from 69,000, marking the highest downward adjustment since the 2009 financial crisis[1] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector contributed 124,000 jobs, accounting for over 90% of the service sector's employment growth in January[1] - Other sectors such as construction and professional business services saw modest increases of 33,000 and 34,000 jobs respectively, while the federal government sector experienced a decline of 34,000 jobs[1] - Excluding healthcare, the private sector has shown a trend of zero job growth since 2023[1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to perform better than expected in Q1 2026, driven by fiscal and monetary easing as well as seasonal factors[2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming release of the January core CPI for potential upward surprises, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations[2] - A combination of better-than-expected economic performance and rising expectations for Trump's visit to China in April could delay rate cuts until June[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply and demand gap has narrowed to -820,000, the lowest since the post-pandemic recovery began[2] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, with total employment rising by 528,000 in January[2] - Permanent unemployment rose by 38,000, indicating a slight upward trend in long-term unemployment[2]