聚酯周报2026/2/10：PTA&MEG：节前累库兑现中，预期尚可-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA:节前检修兑现，需求加速降负，产业链略压缩，现实端一般但预期尚可，节前关注成本地缘和资金影响，轻仓过节，节后关注需求复工进度 [5] - PX:供应维持高位，需求变化不大，近端浮动价偏弱，PXN略回落，现实一般但预期尚可，节前关注资金节奏 [6] - Ethylene glycol:节前负荷高位，合成气有检修，进口略有改善，需求进入节前放假模式，1 - 2月现实端季节性累库，现实一般但预期节后有改善，节前关注宏观情绪 [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weaving Industry - Weaving enters the pre - holiday shutdown mode. As of February 5, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing dropped to 17% (-36%), 9% (-25%), and 45% (-24%) respectively. Pre - holiday inventory is for 15 - 20 days, which is not high [10] 3.2 Polyester Industry - As of February 6, polyester load is around 78.2% (-6%), cash flow is repaired, and average inventory stabilizes at around 14.6 days. Polyester devices are undergoing pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate is slightly decreasing. Polyester benefits are improving, and pre - holiday inventory pressure is not large [15] - Current polyester inventory is slightly rising. As of February 6, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 12.7, 24.9, 16.9, and 8.9 days respectively [16] - Raw material prices are回调, and polyester cash - flow profit is slightly repaired [19] - In the future, polyester factories will carry out pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate may decline seasonally. As of February 6, the polyester load is 78.2%, and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%) [31] 3.3 PTA Industry - PTA device changes are small. Before the holiday, New Materials and Ineos are under maintenance as planned, Dushan Energy plans to conduct maintenance on February 10, Sichuan Energy Investment restarts, and three YS devices are under maintenance. There are maintenance plans for two HL devices in March [43] - As of February 6, with the accelerated decline of polyester load, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increases to 232.57 tons, a rise of 14 tons. Inventories in PTA and polyester factories are rising [44] - PTA supply changes little, demand is seasonally decreasing, the PTA industrial chain valuation is slightly compressed. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro and capital influences and hold light positions. In terms of supply, device maintenance is as mentioned above. In terms of demand, on February 5, polyester load dropped to 79.3% (-4.9%), and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%). Downstream operating rates are further weakening. The PTA balance shows that there is a slight inventory build - up in January - February, and the processing fee is around 400, not low. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical and capital drivers [59] 3.4 PX Industry - US gasoline inventory is rising, and gasoline crack spread is stable [73] - Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits are strong but have slightly declined recently [76] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia is slightly widening. The toluene price spread between the US and Asia is $101.1, and the xylene price spread is $90. In December 2025, South Korea's aromatic exports to the US increased, and in January 2026, the exports were 4.1 tons, a month - on - month decline [85] - PX device status: domestic PX load is 89.2%, and Asian load is 81.6%, both at a high level. Domestic load changes little, and Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. Some Asian devices are slightly increasing their loads. The overall Asian load remains high due to improved benefits [86] - PX supply remains high, demand changes little, the near - end floating price is weak, PXN has slightly declined, the current situation is average but the expectation is good. Before the holiday, pay attention to capital rhythm. The device load is high. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts after maintenance, Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart, and some factories slightly reduce their loads. In Asia, some devices adjust their loads. In terms of balance, Asian supply is at a high load, PX has a loose balance and a small inventory build - up from January to March, and PXN is around 290, with the valuation compressed. Pay attention to capital changes [92] - The price spread between the PX outer and inner markets is widening, the PX 3 - 5 month spread is weakly stable, and the TA05 processing fee drops to around 400 [93] - The PTA - Brent oil industrial chain profit slightly declines but is still not low. PXN is around $290, PTA processing fee is 400 yuan, and the disk processing fee is slightly compressed. The overall valuation is not low. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market situation [96] 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (EG) Industry - As of January 30, the overall EG load is high, with the total load at 76% and the coal - based load at 76.7% [101] - EG device status: Zhongke Refining and Chemical restarts, Sinochem Quanzhou has a difficult restart, CNOOC Shell may stop production, Satellite Petrochemical plans to switch production in February, Shenghong is under maintenance, Gulei has a maintenance plan in March, and BASF is operating at 90% load. For syngas - based production, some factories are under maintenance, and Shaanxi Coal has a rotation maintenance plan in March. Near - end supply is not low, and maintenance is expected to increase [106] - EG price has dropped from a high level, costs are strong, and benefits are compressed [107] - Overseas maintenance plans are increasing. Some devices in Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the US have maintenance or restart - delay plans. The near - end arrivals from January to February are still not low, but the arrivals are expected to decline from February to March [121] - As of February 2, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 93.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrivals from February 2 - 8 are around 12.3 tons, and the actual arrivals are 11 tons. The expected arrivals from February 9 - 23 are 18.1 tons. During the holiday, the arrival expectation is not high, and there is still inventory build - up pressure at the port as downstream industries shut down. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 17.8 days (+1.8), and downstream inventory is increasing [128] - In terms of balance, supply is at a high level, imports are slightly improving, demand is seasonally entering the holiday shutdown mode. The current situation is average, but the expectation is good after the holiday. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro - sentiment [130]