美国1月非农远超预期，短期降息预期降温

Report's Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US January non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and short-term expectations for interest rate cuts cooled. The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts significantly decreased, with the expectation of rate cuts postponed. It is likely that rate cuts will continue to be paused in January, with 1 - 2 rate cuts expected in 2025, and the first rate cut is expected to be postponed to June - July [3][4][36] - Although the January non-farm data alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the employment market, the significant downward revision of the total number of new jobs in 2025 and the possible adjustment of the unemployment rate in February make it difficult to judge that the employment market has reversed its downward trend [4][36] - Future policy implementation faces multiple constraints, geopolitical risks remain unresolved, and market volatility is difficult to reduce. The precious metals and non-ferrous sectors are oscillating after a sharp decline, the US dollar index has risen and then fallen, the yield curve of US Treasury bonds has become steeper, and the US stock market continues to oscillate at a high level [5][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US January Non-farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Short-term Interest Rate Cut Expectations Cool - Overall Data: The newly added non-farm employment in January was 130,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. After revision, the average monthly new employment in 2025 was 15,000, and the new employment center further declined. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the labor participation rate rose to 62.5%, the month-on-month growth rate of hourly wages was 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3.7% [3][9] - Industry Details: New employment mainly came from education and healthcare (137,000), professional and business services (34,000), and construction (33,000). Private service employment increased by 136,000, while the government sector's employment decreased by 42,000. The production sector's employment increased by 36,000, with construction adding 33,000 and manufacturing production adding 5,000 [3][18][25] - PMI and Job Vacancies: In January, the ISM PMI rebounded significantly. The service PMI was 53.8, and the employment sub - item was 50.3. In December, the number of job vacancies dropped to 6.54 million, with a significant decline in the service sector and a slight increase in the production sector [22][25][28] - Wages and Working Hours: In January, the year-on-year growth rate of wages was flat, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded to 0.4%, still supporting core inflation and household consumption. The average weekly working hours were 34.3 hours, higher than expected and the previous value [33][35] 2. Investment Recommendations - The market is still digesting the impact of Wash's election as the new Fed Chairman. The policy proposal of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction has triggered concerns about future liquidity tightening. However, short - term economic resilience, inflation stickiness, and long - term US Treasury supply limit the space for policy implementation [5][40] - Geopolitical risks remain, and market volatility is difficult to reduce. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are oscillating after a sharp decline, the US dollar index has risen and then fallen, the yield curve of US Treasury bonds has become steeper, and the US stock market continues to oscillate at a high level [5][40]