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Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - Cotton and Yarn Price Changes: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - Futures Spread and Processing Profit: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - Warehouse Receipts: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]