国债买卖常态化：货币投放机制的再平衡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The central banks of major global economies have used secondary - market treasury bond trading as a tool for liquidity and interest rate regulation. The Fed has a comprehensive treasury - bond - centered asset - liability management framework, while the People's Bank of China is promoting the normalization of treasury bond trading to upgrade monetary policy tools and enhance interest rate regulation. The report analyzes the differences and similarities between China and the US in operation modes and logics and forecasts future policy paths [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fed's Treasury Bond Trading: Linked with Monetary Policy and Full - Curve Operation - Execution by the New York Federal Reserve Bank: The New York Fed conducts treasury bond transactions with primary dealers through the FedTrade system. The bonds are included in the SOMA, and the multi - price bidding mechanism is used. The upper limit of a single treasury bond held by the SOMA is set to 70% of the bond's outstanding amount [11]. - Predominantly Treasury Bonds with a Steady Increase in Non - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds account for about two - thirds of the Fed's securities assets. From the end of 2020 to October 2025, the proportion of treasury bonds decreased from 69.2% to 65%, while non - treasury bonds increased from 30.8% to 35%. Medium - and long - term treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities are the largest in scale [12]. - Full - Curve Holding with Balanced Short - and Long - Term Distribution: As of the end of October 2025, treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 - year and below accounted for about 17% of the Fed's treasury bond balance, and different - term bonds were evenly distributed to support short - term liquidity regulation and long - term interest rate stability [16]. - Predominantly Buying and Closely Linked with Monetary Policy: From 2020 - 2025, the Fed's bond - buying scale reached $3.37 trillion, far exceeding the selling scale of $687.5 million. During the interest - rate cut cycle, the Fed increased bond purchases; during the interest - rate hike cycle, it reduced bond purchases [18]. 3.2 People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading: Improving Tools and Strengthening Regulation - Initiation of Treasury Bond Trading: In 2024, the central bank initiated treasury bond trading to enrich policy tools, adjust the yield curve, support the real economy, and ease the pressure of government bond issuance. The monetary policy's investment structure shifted from "reverse repurchase + MLF" to "reverse repurchase + treasury bond trading" [23]. - Suspension of Treasury Bond Trading: Due to the off - season of treasury bond issuance, excessive decline in yields, diversification of monetary investment tools, and pressure on the exchange rate, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January 2025 [31]. - Restart of Treasury Bond Trading: In October 2025, the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to control yield risks, cooperate with fiscal policy, supplement policy tools, and relieve the pressure on banks' liquidity [36]. 3.3 Normalization of Treasury Bond Trading: Operation Modes and Impact on Policy Combinations - Operation Outlook: In terms of direction, net buying will be the dominant approach to replenish policy tool reserves and relieve the pressure on the banking system. In terms of term, short - term bond buying will be the main focus, supplemented by long - term bond buying. In terms of scale, the net buying scale will be higher in the first half of 2026 to match the fiscal rhythm [40]. - Impact on Policy Combinations: It will expand the base - money supply channels and postpone the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts. It will make interest rate regulation more flexible and slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, with a possible 1 - time cut of 5 - 10 BP in 2026. It will stabilize the yield central point and optimize the yield curve shape [44].