瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic total sugar production in the new crushing season is expected to be 11.56 million tons, an increase of 394,000 tons year-on-year [2] - The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Wednesday, and the current global sugar supply surplus expectation is weighing on the market [2] - After the Spring Festival stocking in China ended, the sales in the sales areas were relatively light, and the inventory willingness of traders and end - users was not strong, leading to a decline in sales [2] - After the production expectation is confirmed, the sugar price will be adjusted. The production and sales data in the main producing areas of Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong are average, and the spot price remains stable. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will fluctuate within a narrow range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of sugar was 5,254 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position was 443,331 lots, down 8,525 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 14,461, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -61,353 lots, up 407 lots [2] - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 258, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 3,891 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4,935 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,923 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2] - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 884,800 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 392,300 tons [2] - The total sugar export volume from Brazil was 2.0175 million tons, a decrease of 895,500 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,404 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,413 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) was 369 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 381 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar was 580,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons; the cumulative import volume was 4.92 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, an increase of 2.2874 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 13.421 million tons, an increase of 2.964 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.41%, down 0.23%; that of put options was 9.42%, down 0.22% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 9.68%, down 0.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 9.14%, up 0.01% [2]