Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-12 09:29Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the competition around the 140,000 - yuan mark. The macro - economic situation is complex with the US non - farm report affecting interest rate cut expectations, and China's CPI and PPI showing specific changes. The supply side of the nickel industry has factors such as reduced nickel ore imports and potential supply contractions in the future, while the demand side has positive signs from stainless steel and new - energy vehicle sectors. The inventory situation shows an increase both domestically and overseas, and the market sentiment is relatively flat from a technical perspective [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton. The 03 - 04 month contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,065 dollars/ton, up 515 dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 70,629 lots, a decrease of 5,811 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 44,735 lots, a decrease of 4,761 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 285,750 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,457 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,176 tons, an increase of 384 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 52,027 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 145,350 yuan/ton, up 2,750 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 145,450 yuan/ton, up 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 5,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 209.92 dollars/ton, up 2.3 dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Li Qiang proposed to comprehensively promote the scientific and technological innovation, industrial development, and enabling applications of artificial intelligence to cultivate and strengthen new productive forces [3]. - China's CPI year - on - year increase in January dropped from 0.8% to 0.2%, mainly due to the Spring Festival month shift and the expansion of energy price decline caused by international oil price changes. The year - on - year decline of PPI in January narrowed to 1.4% [3]. - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 Key Points of View - Macroeconomic aspect: The US non - farm report in January was strong, suppressing the market's interest rate cut expectations. Traders postponed the expected time of the first interest rate cut from June to July. China's CPI year - on - year increase in January dropped to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Philippines entered the rainy season, and the nickel ore import volume showed a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. The ore production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be only 12 million tons this year, significantly lower than the adjusted 42 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Smelting end: The ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. With the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit margin for production, and the refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - Demand end: The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases on dips, with the spot premium rising. The overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium is lowered [3]. - Technical aspect: The position is stable, the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is flat [3].