瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The I2605 contract fluctuated weakly on Thursday. Macroeconomically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts slowed down. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, the molten iron output remained below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the restocking demand of steel mills weakens, and the futures price continues to consolidate within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded at a low level with shrinking red bars. The view is for short - term trading with attention to risk control. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 762.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 497,918 lots, a decrease of 9039 lots. - The spread between the I 5 - 9 contracts was 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 24481 lots, a decrease of 2098 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 2,900.00 lots, with no change. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 99.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars. [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 808 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 1 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, with no change. The basis of the I main contract (Macfarlane powder dry ton - main contract) was 46 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 99.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.25, an increase of 0.02. - The estimated import cost was 799 yuan/ton. The global weekly iron ore shipment volume was 2,535.30 million tons, a decrease of 559.30 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.60 million tons, a decrease of 213.60 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17,914.68 million tons, an increase of 156.42 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 10,316.64 million tons, an increase of 348.05 million tons. - The monthly iron ore import volume was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 32 days, an increase of 3 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.27%, a decrease of 1.67%. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.71 million tons. The BDI index was 1,958.00, an increase of 76.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.51 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.417 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.47 US dollars. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.55%, an increase of 0.53%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.71%, an increase of 0.26%. - The monthly domestic crude steel output was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.09%, a decrease of 0.13%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.60%, a decrease of 0.20%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.36%, an increase of 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 17.09%, a decrease of 1.03%. [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the weekly output of sintered ore of 54 steel mills was 756.70 million tons, an increase of 7.60 million tons or 1.01% compared with the previous period. The sintered ore inventory was 277.04 million tons, a decrease of 10.61 million tons or 3.69% compared with the previous period. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 3547.77 million tons, an increase of 84.62 million tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.89 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.4, an increase of 0.99 compared with the previous period. [2] Key Focus - The domestic iron ore port inventory, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday. [2]