瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with seasonal accumulation of industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand, with high industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,808 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 3,117 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,260 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Spreads: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of alumina was - 138 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 1,035 yuan/ton, down 975 yuan [2] - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 159,738 lots, down 14,665 lots; that of the alumina main contract was 296,788 lots, down 15,357 lots; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 12,761 lots, down 1,588 lots [2] - Inventories: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 44,325 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 485,750 tons, down 1,225 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 245,140 tons, up 28,369 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 74,425 tons, up 357 tons; Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 200,654 tons, up 33,088 tons [2] - Other indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 50,300 lots, down 725 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57, down 0.05; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 66,638 tons, down 210 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,650 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,350 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,240 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,390 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 260 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 253 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [2] - Premiums and discounts: The Shanghai Material Trading aluminum premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 31.88 US dollars/ton, up 2.46 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and utilization rate: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 82.49%, down 1%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate was 84%, down 1% [2] - Demand and balance: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2] - Prices and trade: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste was 18,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal waste was 17,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import of aluminum waste and scrap was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export of aluminum waste and scrap was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; alumina exports were 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; alumina imports were 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] - Other indicators: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 20.49 million tons, up 31.36 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 82.32 million tons, up 2.71 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and trade: Primary aluminum imports were 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; primary aluminum exports were 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; aluminum product production was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; exports of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 54 million tons, down 3 million tons; exports of aluminum alloy were 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] - Capacity and start - up rate: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, up 4 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.79%, up 0.48% [2] - Other indicators: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.49 million tons, up 1.91 million tons; the total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, unchanged; the aluminum alloy production was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile production: Automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - Real estate index: The National Housing Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 38.37%, down 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 31.22%, down 0.01%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 15.25%, down 0.0068 [2] - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.98, up 0.0708 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Economic data: In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for 4 consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points [2] - US employment: In January, the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000; the unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025; the hourly wage increased 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [2] - Trade issue: A French institution proposed a 30% overall tariff on China to the EU. China may initiate anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on EU, especially French, wines and anti - discrimination investigations on France and the EU. If the EU unilaterally imposes tariffs on China, China will take "reciprocal tariffs" on relevant EU products [2] - Automobile industry: In January, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01% and a decrease of 3.2% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. New energy vehicle exports were 302,000, doubling year - on - year [2] - Monetary policy: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations [2]