瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the unexpected resilience shown by the non - farm data and the hawkish signals from some Fed officials make it difficult for gold prices to have further upward momentum. The upcoming inflation data may guide the subsequent trend [2]. - In the medium to long term, as market sentiment calms down, the pricing logic of precious metals is expected to return to being dominated by macro and fundamental factors. If inflation and employment data continue to cool, the medium - term easing expectation will still support the strategy of buying precious metals on dips [2]. - The support and resistance levels for London gold are 4700 - 4800 dollars/ounce and 5200 - 5300 dollars/ounce respectively; for London silver, they are 65 - 70 dollars/ounce and 90 - 95 dollars/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1126.120 yuan/gram, a decrease of 4.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 20626 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 318 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 154,552.00 hands, a decrease of 5958 hands; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9,092.00 hands, an increase of 42 hands [2]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 246,621.00 hands, an increase of 28688 hands; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 509,006.00 hands, an increase of 4927 hands [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 105072 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 349,633 kilograms, an increase of 7531 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1122.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 19,811.00 yuan, an increase of 255.00 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.60 yuan/gram, an increase of 3.78 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 815.00 yuan/gram, an increase of 573.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1081.32 tons, an increase of 2.00 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 16,236.18 tons, an increase of 19.73 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 165604.00 contracts, a decrease of 39792.00 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net position was 25,877.00 contracts, an increase of 2174.00 contracts [2]. - Supply: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1302.80 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, an increase of 482.00 tons [2]. - Demand: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1345.32 tons, an increase of 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, a decrease of 491.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar Index: The dollar index was 96.93, an increase of 0.07 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - Volatility Index: The VIX volatility index was 17.65, a decrease of 0.14; the CBOE gold volatility index was 29.38, an increase of 0.52 [2]. - Price Ratios: The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 58.98, a decrease of 0.01; the gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.17 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US Employment Data: In January, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [2]. - Fed Officials' Statements: Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that inflation is still above the target level and the "slightly restrictive" interest rate stance should be maintained [2]. - Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts: Traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March is 5.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 94.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 20.5%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 48.1% [2]. - US - Iran Relations: US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" option for the US [2]. - European Aid to Ukraine: The European Parliament voted to pass a financial aid package for Ukraine, which plans to provide 90 billion euros in EU aid loans to Ukraine from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Follow - On February 12 - 03 at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7 - On February 12 - 03 at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January - On February 12 - 03 at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2]