瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry maintains high开工 rates, while downstream enterprises experience seasonal production cuts due to the Spring Festival. The "rush to export" has limited effect on alleviating domestic supply - demand contradictions, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating at a high level. The supply - demand drivers remain bearish. However, due to the overlap of the "anti - involution" cycle and the mercury - free transformation cycle of the PVC industry, the market has an optimistic expectation of future supply pressure relief, providing some support to the market. Additionally, with the approaching of the "Two Sessions" in early March, there is a possibility of an improvement in macro - sentiment. In the short term, the PVC market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market price is expected to fluctuate. The daily range of V2605 is expected to be around 4900 - 5000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the trading volume is 815,778 lots, a decrease of 88,754 lots; the open interest is 1,101,478 lots, a decrease of 9,805 lots. Among the top 20 futures positions, the long position is 1,069,537 lots, a decrease of 10,791 lots; the short position is 1,186,526 lots, a decrease of 7,436 lots; the net long position is - 116,989 lots, a decrease of 3,355 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4753.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.26 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4865.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 188 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2614 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 417 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 209 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.26%, an increase of 0.33%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.85%, an increase of 0.27%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.49%, an increase of 0.47%. The total social inventory of PVC is 592,900 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 545,000 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region is 47,800 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of newly started housing area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.5989029 billion square meters, an increase of 38.2409 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, an increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.88%, an increase of 0.37%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 21.3%, a decrease of 0.2%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.32%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.31%, an increase of 0.31% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 31 to February 5, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 79.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.33% month - on - month to 41.42%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 4% to 33%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 2.39% to 29.13%. As of February 5, the PVC social inventory was 1.227 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. From January 31 to February 5, the average national cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5278 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 4898 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to - 659 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to 103 yuan/ton [3]