瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation of weak supply and demand due to the influence of the pre - holiday period. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,902 hands, a decrease of 1,086 hands; the position of the main contract is 353,975 hands, a decrease of 2,556 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,940 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 37,282 hands, an increase of 1,755 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 11,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,950 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, a decrease of 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 130,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 47,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 197,500 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, a decrease of 50 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 0%, a decrease of 60 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000 vehicles, a decrease of 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 945,000 vehicles, a decrease of 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.28%, a decrease of 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 102,942 contracts, an increase of 6,101 contracts; the total holding of put options is 93,278 contracts, an increase of 4,780 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 90.61%, a decrease of 0.7727 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.65%, an increase of 0.0320 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In January, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The sales volume of power batteries was 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 63.2%; the sales volume of energy - storage batteries was 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 17.0% and a year - on - year increase of 164.0%. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 48.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 59.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [2] - Most key automobile enterprises have compressed the payment period to within 60 days, with an average payment period of about 54 days (about 10 days shorter than the same period last year), and 4 enterprises have an average payment period of less than 50 days [2] - Sichuan Province supports automobile replacement and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer their registered passenger cars through sale and purchase new - energy passenger cars in the "Catalogue of New - Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" or fuel - powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less will be given a one - time subsidy. For those who exchange for eligible new - energy passenger cars, a subsidy of 8% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan; for those who exchange for eligible fuel - powered passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan [2] - In January 2026, the automobile industry in China maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with the production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and the sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. The new - energy automobile market maintained stable operation, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued the positive trend, with both production and sales maintaining double - digit growth year - on - year in January. In terms of automobile exports, it continued to grow. The export of new - energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [2] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]