沥青春节假期持仓报告：供需双弱，易受原油波动影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand and is susceptible to crude oil price fluctuations During the Spring Festival holiday, due to the potential US - Iran negotiations and the uncertainty of the results, oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly, and asphalt prices will follow suit It is recommended to participate cautiously, hold no positions during the holiday, and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread for profit [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [1] - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly, with the national shipment volume decreasing 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Crude oil impact: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which affects domestic asphalt production and costs Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price and trading: Shandong asphalt prices are stable, and the basis is still at a low level It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March Logistics gradually stops approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading has become lighter [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.24% to 3343 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average The lowest price was 3320 yuan/ton, the highest was 3398 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5812 to 154,728 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 133 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Individually, some refineries postponed their resumption of production, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the period from January to October 2025 but was still negative In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in the period from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in the period from January to November 2025 As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the period from January to November The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]