焦煤春节假期持仓报告：关注上下游复产进程

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak oscillation range with a pattern of both supply and demand reduction. There was unlikely to be a trending market before the festival [1] - As the holiday approached, mines mostly reduced or halted production. The domestic coking coal supply contracted during the holiday, and the news of Indonesia's potential export suspension was uncertain [1] - The downstream demand was in a seasonal off - peak. Steel mills and coking enterprises maintained low - level inventory and replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis. The winter stockpiling was nearly finished [1] - The coking enterprises' price increase was implemented before the festival, and their profits were restored. There was a need to be vigilant about the possibility of price cuts after the festival if the demand recovery fell short of expectations [1] - Currently, coking coal remained in a loose supply - demand situation. The post - festival resumption of production in steel mills and mines might affect the coking coal price. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position due to potential price fluctuations after the holiday [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price of coking coal was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 1,018 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,120 yuan/ton. The basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Supply Data - From February 6th to February 13th, the coking coal开工率 of 523 domestic sample mines was 81.39%, a decrease of 5.28 percentage points compared to the previous period. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons compared to the previous period [4] 3.3 Demand Data - From January 30th to February 6th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.14 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to the previous period [6] - The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons compared to the previous period [6] - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period [6]