瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2603 fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,958 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased slightly but remained at a high level [2]. - Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The load of some viscose staple fiber units was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Printing and dyeing enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have fully taken holidays and stopped production, and the printing and dyeing operating rate has dropped to 0% [2]. - Some downstream enterprises in East and South China actively replenished their stocks this week, and some production enterprises in North and Northwest China cleared their inventories before the Spring Festival. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants across the country decreased month - on - month, but the inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [2]. - Affected by the weak price of liquid chlorine, Shandong's chlor - alkali profit showed a downward trend this week, and the theoretical loss of enterprises deepened. With the decline of chlor - alkali profit, the market price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has gradually stopped falling and rebounded. However, in the short term, the caustic soda price is still suppressed by high domestic supply and weak demand. Sustained rebound requires the support of production cuts by chlor - alkali plants in the future [2]. - After the Spring Festival, as the delivery month of the 03 contract approaches, the price rebound space is limited. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1,930 - 2,000. The 05 contract trades on the expectation of chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and the price has relatively high upward elasticity. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2,130 - 2,200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 1,958 yuan/ton, and the position of the main caustic soda contract was 90,829 lots, a decrease of 21,499 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders in caustic soda was - 1,150 lots, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 170,290 lots, a decrease of 89,978 lots [2]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 1,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Jiangsu it was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry News - From February 6th to February 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% [2]. - From January 31st to February 6th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month - on - month to 84.06%. From January 30th to February 5th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 88.28%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 27.91% month - on - month to 0% [2]. - As of February 5th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 471,400 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97% [2]. - On February 12th, the daily profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 266 yuan/ton [2]