Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-12 10:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938) with a target PE of 30x for 2025E and 24x for 2026E, while other companies like Shenghong Technology (300476) and Shengyi Technology (600183) do not have a specific rating [3]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by AI demand, with total capital expenditures projected to rise from approximately $160 billion to about $450 billion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a strong alignment between capital expenditure growth and AI computing demand [9][25]. - The NPO (Near-Photonics Optics) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are gaining traction in the industry, providing substantial growth opportunities for domestic optical communication companies [31][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of scalable optical modules in future cloud infrastructure, with NPO currently favored by domestic cloud vendors due to its advantages in interconnect density and cost [34][36]. Summary by Sections North American Cloud Vendors' Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $81.273 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.72%, with a net profit of $38.458 billion, up 59.52% [12]. - Google achieved Q4 FY25 revenue of $113.828 billion, a 17.99% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $34.455 billion, up 29.84% [16]. - Amazon's Q4 FY25 revenue reached $213.386 billion, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $2.1192 billion, up 5.93% [20]. - Meta's Q4 FY25 revenue was $59.893 billion, a 23.78% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $22.768 billion, up 9.26% [21]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2026 - Google is expected to have a capital expenditure of $175-185 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 97% [25]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be in the range of $115-135 billion for 2026, indicating a 77% increase year-over-year [27]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at around $200 billion, a 50% increase from previous estimates [20]. NPO and CPO Technology Developments - NPO technology is gaining popularity among cloud vendors due to its high interconnect density and cost-effectiveness, making it suitable for distributed scale-up networks [34][36]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical engines and switching chips, is being actively promoted by NVIDIA and is expected to replace traditional pluggable optical modules in the future [37][42]. - The report highlights the significant development space for domestic optical communication companies driven by the advancements in NPO and CPO technologies [31][46].