原油春节假期持仓报告：美伊核谈判不确定，原油波动较大

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market has large fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday due to the uncertainty of the US-Iran nuclear negotiation. The oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to participate cautiously and hold an empty position during the holiday [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase of oil production in March. The EIA data shows that due to the fading impact of winter storms, US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, but the de - stocking of propane and refined oil inventories is large, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased slightly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil is still in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arab light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's latest February monthly report has further raised the supply - surplus amplitude of crude oil in 2026 [1] - With the US expanding the permission for Venezuelan oil - related transactions, Venezuela's oil production is expected to recover to the level before the US maritime blockade in December last year by the middle of 2026. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation in Muscat, Oman has "temporarily" ended. The US has warned US - flagged ships to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump has said that if the negotiation with Iran fails, he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. He expects the second round of US - Iran talks to be held next week. Satellite images show that the US military has increased the deployment of military aircraft and other equipment at military bases in Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean [1] - US President Trump had a closed - door meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. He posted on social media that no specific decision was reached, but he insisted that the negotiation with Iran continue to reach an agreement. The geopolitical risk in Iran still has great uncertainty. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and cease - fire. The repeated geopolitical situation in Iran has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. The cold wave has weakened, and the next cold wave's impact should be noted. The production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field has recovered to 60% of its peak and is expected to fully resume production on February 23 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.19% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 476.2 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 486.4 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 2201 to 43712 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand in 2026 at 104.8 million barrels per day and raises the global oil production in 2026 from the previously predicted 107.7 million barrels per day to 107.8 million barrels per day. OPEC maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day and in 2027 at 1.34 million barrels per day [5] - On the evening of February 11, US EIA data showed that for the week ending February 6, US crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels and 1.19% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.16 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 362,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 2.703 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.313 million barrels. Heating oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, and propane inventories decreased by 5.45 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.071 million barrels [5] - On the supply side, OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran. US crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels per day to 13.713 million barrels per day in the week of February 6. As the impact of winter storms faded, US crude oil production rebounded to near the historical high [6] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.827 million barrels per day, a 1.06% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production increased by 1.80% to 8.3 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.261 million barrels per day, a 0.01% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly diesel production increased by 3.23% to 4.449 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 4.088 million barrels per day, a 4.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although the production of gasoline and diesel increased month - on - month, the decline of other oil products was large, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to decrease by 1.15% month - on - month [6]