PP春节假期持仓报告：L-PP价差回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no unilateral positions during the holiday. It is advisable to hold a light - position short position on the L - PP spread as plastic has new production capacity put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the centralized demand for mulch film has not started yet [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28%. Petrochemical destocking in February was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. The number of maintenance devices decreased slightly recently. The price of BOPP film in some downstream areas was stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry decreased, new orders were limited, and more terminal enterprises stopped work for the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream stocking mostly completed [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6648 yuan/ton, the highest was 6730 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6648 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.73%. The position volume decreased by 7495 lots to 479342 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $830 per ton week - on - week [4]