尿素春节假期持仓报告：节前消息扰动，空仓过节为宜

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an oscillating upward trend and rose significantly with increased positions due to market news rumors. It is advisable to hold no positions during the holiday as there may be news disturbances in the external market during the Spring Festival [1]. - After the holiday, the urea market will enter the agricultural demand peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance and a generally strong market, but the increase may be limited by supply - guarantee and price - stabilization measures during the spring plowing period. Also, the bullish sentiment of spring plowing fertilizer storage has been partially digested before the holiday, so be cautious about post - holiday market judgment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, urea had an oscillating upward trend and rose with increased positions due to market news. During the holiday, order collection was completed smoothly with strong futures sentiment. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 210,000 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month. Although the high output has been factored into the price, the inventory is relatively low at the beginning of the year. During the holiday, the downstream will stop production and transportation will be hindered, so inventory is likely to accumulate. After the holiday, it will be the agricultural demand peak season, but the price increase may be limited [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,797 yuan/ton, rose with oscillations, and closed at 1,843 yuan/ton, up 2.79%. The trading volume was 260,406 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 30,843 lots and short positions increased by 29,515 lots [2]. - Spot: Pre - orders are basically completed. After the futures price rose, the spot price increased steadily. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,740 - 1,780 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - Supply Data: On February 12, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.41% [8]. - Enterprise Inventory Data: As of February 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, a decrease of 83,800 tons or 9.12% compared to the previous week. The pre - order days were 11.12 days, an increase of 2.3 days or 26.08% compared to the previous period [12]. - Downstream Data: From February 6 to February 13, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points compared to the previous week [14].