沪铜春节假期持仓报告：海外情绪易扰动，空仓过节为宜

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that it is advisable to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai copper market has experienced significant fluctuations before the holiday, influenced by external market news and precious metal sentiment. Although the fundamentals may improve after the downstream resumes production, the market is easily affected by overseas news and external non - ferrous metals, leading to amplified volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai copper was affected by external market news and precious metal sentiment, resulting in significant fluctuations. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply - demand logic before the holiday was a double - reduction situation. In January, the production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of SMM China electrolytic copper will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The news of expanding copper reserves has stimulated the market to rise, amplifying the expectation of tight supply. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, the downstream industry replenished raw materials, but as the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, the downstream entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases decreased marginally. The price of Shanghai copper is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industrial anti - involution at the lower end and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions at the upper end [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. - Spot: On February 11, 2026, the spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 50 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 13,383 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 177,200 tons, an increase of 8,282 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 192,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,500 short tons, an increase of 1,248 short tons from the previous period [13].