银河期货粕类日报-20260212

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Price Information Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2962, 2790, and 2898 respectively, with increases of 12, 17, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao are 380, 270, 280, and 290 respectively [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2263, 2303, and 2349 respectively, with increases of 10, 15, and 19. Spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi are 227, 147, and 37 respectively [3]. Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 172 (down 5 from yesterday), 59 - spread is -108 (up 7), and 91 - spread is -64 (down 2) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is -40 (down 5 from yesterday), 59 - spread is -46 (down 4), and 91 - spread is 86 (up 9) [3]. Cross - Variety Spreads - The current soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 699, and 09 spread is 549. The current oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.710 [3]. Spot Spreads - The current soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 540 (down 13 from yesterday), rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread is 210 (up 10), and soybean meal - sunflower meal spread is 820 (up 17) [3]. Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date, with significant changes compared to the previous day, e.g., for April shipment, the change in pressing profit is -35.02 [8]. Group 3: Market Conditions International - The US soybean market is bullish, mainly due to improved exports. The monthly supply - demand report's bearish impact is limited. The South American market is firm, less affected by the US soybean increase. The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply, with price pressure still existing [3][4]. Domestic - The domestic soybean meal market is bullish, driven by short - covering. The rapeseed meal market is also bullish, with significant position - reducing and price increases. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is narrowing [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International - US soybean carry - over stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations. South American supply is increasing, with Brazil's new crop growing well and harvest progressing smoothly. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, with increased pressing and exports [4]. Domestic - As of February 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.484 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.33%. Soybean inventory is 5.6704 million tons, down 10.77% from last week. Rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are low, with supply pressure still existing [5]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The US soybean is bullish due to macro - factors, but high - price export sustainability is limited. International market uncertainty lies in weather. The domestic soybean meal market is bullish, but supply uncertainty remains. The rapeseed meal market is also bullish, affected by soybean meal and position - reducing. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread will be volatile [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold off on trading. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading. - Options: Mainly use the strategy of selling wide straddles. [7]