有色日报：有色震荡运行-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight decline in open interest. Macroscopically, due to the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the copper inventory in major regions continued to rise. With the Spring Festival approaching, short - term capital drive was weak [7]. - 沪铝: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, affected by the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Domestically, with the Spring Festival approaching, investors had a strong willingness to close positions. Industrially, domestic electrolytic aluminum continued seasonal inventory accumulation. Technically, recently, Shanghai aluminum continued to decline in open interest and fluctuate, with weak capital drive [8]. - 沪镍: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract price fluctuating around the 140,000 - yuan mark and falling below 140,000 at the end of the session. Macroscopically, affected by the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Industrially, on February 10, the Indonesian official revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260 - 270 million tons, in line with previous market expectations, which boosted market sentiment. The positive news on the supply side made the nickel price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On February 12, SMM reported that the spot premium was expected to face downward pressure. With the Spring Festival approaching, market participation continued to decline. Most suppliers and downstream enterprises had gradually entered the holiday state, and the overall trading atmosphere was light. On the supply side, the priced - in imported copper locked during the opening of the import window was continuously arriving at the port, and the inventory in Shanghai increased significantly. On the demand side, due to the approaching festival, downstream enterprises had generally taken holidays, and the procurement demand continued to weaken. Overall, the market would maintain light trading, and it was expected that the spot discount would continue to expand tomorrow [11]. - Nickel: On February 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,200 - 150,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 145,350 yuan/ton, up 2,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,750 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton. According to Bloomberg Technoz, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) released the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota on February 10. Tri Winarno, the director - general of Mineral and Coal, confirmed that the approved production this year was only 260 - 270 million tons [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper spot premium [13], Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory [14], LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15], global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX) [17], and SHFE warrant inventory [18]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis [24], aluminum monthly spread [30], electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26], electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32], and aluminum rod inventory [34]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis [36], nickel monthly spread [42], LME inventory [38], and nickel ore port inventory [46].