节前情绪弱稳，钢矿延续震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the situation of weak supply and demand before the holiday remains unchanged, fundamental contradictions of rebar continue to accumulate, inventory has increased significantly, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.31%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals continue to operate weakly. The price of hot-rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance, and beware of the intensification of contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, affected by weather factors, the overseas ore supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the contrary, the demand performance is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore remain weak. Under the dominance of the real logic, the ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism, aiming to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US economic and trade relations [7]. - In January 2026, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.544 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.973 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The wholesale volume of self - owned car companies was 1.326 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The wholesale volume of mainstream joint - venture car companies was 0.42 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 0.228 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - As of February 11, 2026, 35 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance and publicity of the ultimate energy - efficiency benchmark of the China Iron and Steel Association, and on that day, Shiheng Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,190, 3,150 and 3,304 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,240, 3,140 and 3,279 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet is 2,900, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160. The volume - to - rebar spread is 50, and the rebar - to - scrap spread is 1,030. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 758, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 767, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates are 8.27 and 22.58 respectively, the SGX swap price (current month) is 100.29, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 99.95 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,050, with a decline of 0.23%, the trading volume is 444,164, a decrease of 113,120 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 2,029,537, a decrease of 34,123 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,218, with a decline of 0.31%, the trading volume is 214,288, a decrease of 40,967 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 1,533,692, a decrease of 18,682 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 762.0, with a decline of 0.20%, the trading volume is 112,867, a decrease of 20,919 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 497,918, a decrease of 9,039 compared with the previous period [12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore, including inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of steel mills [14][29]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to weaken, inventory has increased significantly, the weekly output of short - process steel mills has decreased by 22.52 tons, and supply continues to shrink. However, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. The demand for rebar also weakens, and high - frequency demand indicators are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to drag down steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand continue to weaken seasonally, the inventory increase has expanded, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 1.40 tons, and it is still at a relatively high level. The supply pressure still exists. The demand for hot - rolled coil continues to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 9.35 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains at a high level, it provides support for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The export performance is average, and the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil weakens. The price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills stabilizes, and the terminal consumption of ore increases slightly. However, considering the poor profitability of steel mills and the accumulation of steel market contradictions, the demand improvement is limited. The arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipping of miners has decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances, resulting in a short - term contraction of overseas ore supply. The domestic ore supply also contracts seasonally, and the high - inventory situation limits the relief of ore supply pressure. The ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [38].