股指早报2026年2月12日：美非农超预期，A股节前继续缩量-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the strong US labor market data has lowered the recent rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut in June has dropped to 48%. The performance of assets in response to the non - farm payroll data is limited, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data on Friday [2]. - Domestically, the CPI in January was lower than expected, and the PPI was higher than expected, which is beneficial to the cyclical sectors. The A - share market is in a shrinking volume shock before the holiday, and the window guidance on star stocks only affects the corresponding sectors, indicating the resilience of the market. Investors can decide their holiday positions based on market performance and bet on the Hong Kong stock technology sector during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - US Non - farm Report: The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. After the release of non - farm data, traders lowered their expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world." The US Labor Secretary said the January employment report showed a strong US economy [5][6][7]. - Fed: Schmid advocates maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, believing that further interest rate cuts may lead to persistent inflation. Milan said he would be willing to stay at the Fed if nominated [8]. - Other News: Trump met with the Israeli Prime Minister and said reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred option." A source said Trump was privately weighing whether to withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The Ministry of Commerce announced that the bonus scale of the prize - winning invoices during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday will exceed 10 billion. Wenzhou Technology expressed extreme disappointment and strong dissatisfaction with the latest ruling of the Dutch corporate court in the Nexperia case. Three departments issued matters related to the connection of value - added tax preferential policies at the import stage after the implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law. The State Council announced that China will fully establish a unified national power market system by 2035, with the proportion of market - traded electricity increasing steadily. The low - altitude demonstration verification of the Long March 10 launch vehicle system and the maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft system were successful [9][10][11]. Futures Market Tracking The text provides multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [15][22][29]. Spot Market Tracking - The text presents charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market weekly average trading volume, market weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [36][37][40]. Liquidity Tracking The text provides charts of the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [45].