塑料春节假期持仓报告：L-PP价差回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - Spot: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].