海外市场点评：假期海外市场的宏观悬念

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent macroeconomic data improvements may slightly weaken market rate cut expectations, potentially causing short-term rebounds in the USD and US Treasury yields, which could negatively impact equity markets; however, the overall impact is expected to be limited[4] - The US job market has been revised down by nearly 900,000 annually, indicating a fragile economic recovery characterized by a "K-shaped" divergence[4][21] - The new Fed Chair nominee, Waller's statements are closely watched, but are unlikely to disrupt the Fed's established policy framework[7] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - The upcoming Spring Festival may bring new narratives affecting post-holiday capital market trends, with AI and tariffs as key themes; last year, AI significantly impacted market dynamics, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The technology sector is expected to continue its momentum, with significant AI model launches anticipated during the holiday period, potentially creating trading opportunities[6][12] - However, risks such as tightening liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, need to be monitored closely[7][8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US CPI and GDP growth are expected to rebound, with January's non-farm payrolls showing a significant increase, marking a step towards pausing rate cuts[6][19] - The GDPnow forecast predicts a high GDP growth rate of 3.7% for Q4 2025, indicating robust economic activity[19] - The recent surge in oil prices, reaching $70 per barrel, reflects geopolitical tensions and market adjustments following significant corrections in commodity prices[7][26]