铜日报：铜价高位偏强运行，警惕春节期间的宏观波动-20260212

Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On February 11, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,000 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the spot premium/discount widening. The discount of premium copper deepened to -25 yuan/ton, that of flat copper to -70 yuan/ton, and that of wet-process copper to -130 yuan/ton. The LME (0-3) discount remained at -76.1 dollars/ton [1][35]. - Position and Trading Volume: As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market trading was light, and the position volume shrank significantly. On February 10, the LME position decreased by 1,683 lots to 325,291 lots, while the SHFE inventory increased to 192,100 tons. The trading volume contracted due to the completion of downstream enterprises' stockpiling and logistics restrictions, weakening overall market liquidity [1][37]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: In December 2025, Codelco's copper production in Chile increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 181,400 tons, but Escondida's output decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's output decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons. North American copper mine projects are expanding. Supported by Chinese policies, the smelting end saw an increase in the arrival of goods due to the opening of the import window, resulting in an overall loose supply [2][40]. - Demand Side: The demand in the power sector was strong, but the traditional sectors were weak. The home appliance, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were affected by the Spring Festival. Overall, demand was differentiated, showing a seasonal decline before the festival [2][44]. - Inventory Side: Global inventories continued to accumulate. On February 11, 2026, the LME inventory increased to 178,897 tons, the SHFE inventory to 192,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory to 591,459 short tons. The inventory in the United States increased fivefold to 534,000 metric tons, intensifying the tightness of the circulable supply, but the increase in exchange inventories alleviated the pressure [2][41]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The driving factors include the accumulation of inventories on the supply side alleviating the tightness, but the limited increase in North American projects. On the demand side, the power investment support and the post - festival restocking expectation offset the weakness in home appliances. The macro sentiment is neutral to optimistic (China's CPI rose moderately by 0.2%, and the enhanced risk appetite pushed up the LME price). The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 102,000 yuan/ton [3][47].